Will Superheroes Save Hollywood? The Shocking Truth About This Summer’s Box Office!

Profane superheroes, chattering Minions, and a healthy dose of animated anxiety have helped this summer’s box office rebound from the winter and spring slump, providing a much-needed boost in a time of widespread industry uncertainty.

Driven by several sequels, the summer’s gross box office earnings (from the first Friday in May) are expected to reach approximately $3.6 billion by Labor Day weekend, as estimated by Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

Although this figure falls short of last year’s $4 billion box office, bolstered by “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer”, it still surpasses the summers of 2022, 2021, and 2020. This is an encouraging sign for theater operators and movie studio executives who had to endure a challenging period from January to May due to a lack of compelling films and underperforming releases.

With eagerly awaited films like “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” “Wicked,” and “Moana 2” hitting the theaters in fall and winter, industry insiders are hopeful about the remainder of the year and beyond.

“Should we maintain this current momentum from the summer into the fall and early 2025, the exhibition industry will undoubtedly be satisfied,” commented Jim Orr, president of theatrical distribution at Universal Pictures. “We can confidently announce that we’re back.”

This optimism starkly contrasts with the mood earlier this year when the industry was collectively apprehensive as the box office struggled to engage audiences. This anxiety transformed into outright panic by Memorial Day when movies such as “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” and “Garfield” failed to meet high expectations, resulting in the worst Memorial Day weekend box office in nearly thirty years. It should be noted, however, that “Garfield” ended up grossing over $257 million globally on a reported budget of $60 million.

Industry experts now view that five-month period as the nadir of the theatrical downturn, partially attributed to lingering effects of the pandemic and dual strikes by writers and actors, which interfered with the production and promotion of films.

“The industry suffered a double blow,” stated Charles Rivkin, chairman of the Motion Picture Association. “First, we had the pandemic which turned our $11-billion industry into nothing practically overnight. Then, as we were recovering from that, we were hit by the strikes.”

At the beginning of the season, morale was quite low. Save for a few hits, like Disney’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” May releases, including Universal’s “Fall Guy” and Warner Bros.’ “Furiosa,” mostly flopped.

“Expectations for ’24 were certainly modest,” Dergarabedian said. “We didn’t have a Marvel movie to kick off the summer.”

However, the box office began to improve with the release of June’s “Bad Boys: Ride or Die.” This film was the first of many sequels that would fuel the critical summer box office.

Animated movies played a key role in the resurgence.

“Inside Out 2” and “Despicable Me 4” posted impressive figures, which is significant given that animation was one of the last genres to rebound from the pandemic due to families’ hesitation to return to theaters and the convenience of streaming movies at home.

With several more animated films slated for release later this year, global family box office revenue could hit $6.1 billion, surpassing 2018’s total, according to David A. Gross, publisher of the FranchiseRe movie industry newsletter.

“It’s fair to say that since ‘Super Mario’ in spring of 2023, family moviegoing has returned to pre-pandemic levels,” he said.

So far, the domestic box office has generated about $5.6 billion, down from $6.6 billion at this stage last year, according to Comscore. But the summer box office has made considerable strides.

“I’m not one to declare victory prematurely, but I believe we’re heading in the right direction,” said Rich Gelfond, CEO of Imax Corp., the giant-screen technology company based in Playa Vista. “We’re definitely on the road to recovery.”

One factor contributing to the recovery: Walt Disney Co. regained its momentum this summer, largely due to “Inside Out 2.”

The Pixar animated sequel to 2015’s “Inside Out” pulled in $1.6 billion worldwide, making it the highest grossing animated movie ever and the top film of the summer season. Following closely, Disney-owned Marvel Studios delivered a hit with the R-rated “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which raked in $1 billion in global revenue and became the second-highest grossing film of the summer.

“Historically, R-rated movies have had a bit of a ceiling because they’re not accessible to children,” noted Greg Marcus, CEO of Marcus Theatres, a Milwaukee, Wis.-based chain with approximately 80 locations across 17 states.

However, the reception for the film “shows the… demand for content. The people are saying, ‘If you make it, we will come,’” he said.

The successful performances of Pixar and Marvel were significant, as these key Disney brands have struggled to consistently deliver in recent years. Disney’s uncharacteristically weak post-pandemic performance was one reason why box office analysts severely underestimated the opening weekend projections for “Inside Out 2.”

“Everyone had high hopes for that film,” said Sean Gamble, CEO of Cinemark, a Texas-based theater chain with more than 300 locations, including 20 in Southern California. “We certainly did, but it far surpassed our expectations. It’s probably one of the biggest over-performing films… we’ve seen in a very long time.”

Tony Chambers, executive vice president of theatrical distribution at Disney, said, “Quality matters, and quality delivers” — echoing a key point from Disney CEO Bob Iger, who has ordered sweeping cuts across the company to offset losses from its streaming business and has directed creative departments to focus on theater releases and not produce as much content.

Casting a wider net to attract diverse, multicultural audiences also helps, Chambers added.

“It sounds very simple, but if you cast your net wide enough, you’re likely to catch more fish,” he said. “That’s been the common denominator for all the movies that have worked successfully this summer.”

Despite the slight summer reprieve, the movie industry still faces enormous challenges. Box office revenue is still below pre-pandemic levels, and it’s uncertain whether it will ever fully recover as viewing habits evolve.

This summer, theaters across the U.S. sold 274 million tickets, an 18% drop from last summer, according to industry data firm EntTelligence. This is a far cry from the 406 million tickets sold in summer 2019 — a time when moviegoers weren’t yet accustomed to watching major releases at home on streaming platforms.

Moreover, film financing has become more challenging as interest rates have risen. China is no longer a dependable market for boosting American films’ box office revenue. Additionally, studios have cut budgets and laid off thousands of employees as they grapple with balancing their substantial spending on streaming services with lower-than-expected returns.

However, if box office returns for the second half of this year are only 10% lower compared to pre-pandemic levels, that would be a positive outcome, Gross said.

And notably, this summer, the charge was led by a multitude of sequels.

“Sometimes people question, ‘Are there too many sequels?’’’ Gamble said. “When the stories are compelling, they work. And we’ve seen numerous examples of that this summer.”

Of course, simply adding more installments to a franchise doesn’t guarantee success (as evidenced by “Furiosa”). But this summer’s sequels have been “solid,” providing some level of reassurance for the industry.

“When these movies are successful, and when the box office is thriving, it benefits every aspect of the business,” Gross said. “It helps everyone relax.”

While original and non-franchise films didn’t dominate the box office this year, they certainly contributed to its success.

Unexpected breakout hits like Neon’s brilliantly marketed horror film “Longlegs (the indie studio’s biggest movie to date) and Sony’s adaptation of the bestselling Colleen Hoover novel “It Ends With Us” didn’t bring in as much as “Deadpool” or “Inside Out 2.” But they played an important role, exceeding expectations and keeping audiences engaged.

“Every dollar counts in the summer, and those… films contributed substantially to the bottom line,” Dergarabedian said. “Every $20 million times five… is $100 million. So it all adds up to what turned out to be a pretty remarkable summer.”

Emelyn Stuart, owner of Stuart Cinema and Cafe in Brooklyn, N.Y., said summer business has been “incredible” compared to the previous year. Her theater has only one screen, which means she has just one opportunity at a time to select a hit movie.

Last year, some of her choices included “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” as well as the DC Comics superhero film “The Flash,” which grossed just $271 million worldwide amid a controversy surrounding its star, Ezra Miller.

This year, she chose “Bad Boys: Ride or Die,” “Despicable Me 4,” “Deadpool & Wolverine,” and “A Quiet Place: Day One.” The range of available films resulted in a winning combination, she said.

For the fall, she’s planning to add a second screen to increase her options — especially for attracting family audiences.

“With ‘Wicked’ coming, with ‘Beetlejuice,’ with ‘Joker,’ I think we’re going to finish the year strong,” she said.