It’s time to crank up the BuzzMeter again!
Our BuzzMeter film buffs and experts are back with their predictions for the 2025 Academy Awards, giving us a glimpse into what they believe will be the biggest contenders. Keep in mind that some of the films they’ve picked haven’t been released yet, but that hasn’t stopped our panel from giving their predictions for 10 Oscar categories. Round 1, dubbed the “Buzzy” round, blends what the panelists predict will charm the voters with what they hope will. Round 2 will focus on their Oscar nominations predictions and finally, in Round 3, they’ll choose the winners. Take a look at their Round 1 picks below.
1. “Anora”
2. “Emilia Pérez”
3. “The Brutalist”
4. (tie) “Conclave”
4. (tie) “Blitz”
4. (tie) “Dune: Part Two”
7. “All We Imagine as Light”
8. “Nickel Boys”
9. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
9. (tie) “The Room Next Door”
9. (tie) “Gladiator II”
12. “A Real Pain”
13. (tie) “September 5”
13. (tie) “The Piano Lesson”
15. “Challengers”
16. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
16. (tie) “Juror #2”
18. (tie) “Sing Sing”
18. (tie) “Wicked”
19. “Here”
With the awards season still in its early stages and many potential contenders yet to be screened, 22 films have received best-picture votes from the panel in Round 1. Four films dominate this early forecasting: the American indie film “Anora,” the unique French musical “Emilia Pérez,” Edward Berger’s English-language papal drama “Conclave,” and Brady Corbet’s post-WWII drama “The Brutalist.” These films are prevalent across the BuzzMeter, appearing in or near the top of most of the 10 categories, including best picture. In the first round, “Anora” takes a significant lead at No. 1, with “Emilia” and “Brutalist” trailing closely behind. “Conclave” ties for fourth place with Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” and “Dune: Part Two.”
These top contenders aren’t just predictions; they’re also panel favorites. Glenn Whipp notes that Payal Kapadia’s “All We Imagine as Light” could be this year’s standout, thanks to its visually stunning portrayal of female friendship in Mumbai.
Notably missing from the first-round list is Rachel Morrison’s “The Fire Inside.” Tim Cogshell points out that Morrison, a first-time director and veteran cinematographer, is backed by an Oscar-winning script from director Barry Jenkins.
1. Sean Baker — “Anora”
2. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”
3. Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez”
4. Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two”
5. Steve McQueen — “Blitz”
6. Ridley Scott — “Gladiator II”
7. (tie) Payal Kapadia — “All We Imagine as Light”
7. (tie) Edward Berger — “Conclave”
7. (tie) James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown”
10. (tie) RaMell Ross — “Nickel Boys”
10. (tie) Mike Leigh — “Hard Truths”
Despite leaving off notable contenders such as Yorgos Lanthimos (“Kinds of Kindness”), Luca Guadagnino (“Queer” and “Challengers”), Walter Salles (“I’m Still Here”) and Pedro Almodóvar (“The Room Next Door”), the first round list is surprisingly short. Sean Baker’s work on “Anora” has him leading the pack. Baker’s screwball comedy has won him favor, earning him nearly double the points of second-place contender Brady Corbet.
Edward Berger, known for his internationally acclaimed “All Quiet on the Western Front,” seeks his first directing nomination this year. Anne Thompson suggests that Payal Kapadia’s “All We Imagine as Light” could be a dark horse in the director category.
1. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
2. Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”
3. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”
4. Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door”
5. Angelina Jolie — “Maria”
6. (tie) Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths”
6. (tie) Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked”
8. (tie) Demi Moore — “The Substance”
8. (tie) Amy Adams — “Nightbitch”
Dave Karger describes the lead-actress race as “the most exciting of all the acting categories this year.” Mikey Madison’s role in “Anora” places her in the lead, just ahead of past winner Nicole Kidman in “Babygirl.” Karla Sofía Gascón’s performance in “Emilia Pérez” could potentially make history as the first trans performer nominated in this category.
Despite strong performances from Tilda Swinton and Angelina Jolie, the actress with the most mentions in Round 1 is Marianne Jean-Baptiste for her unforgettable role in “Hard Truths.” However, previous winners Kate Winslet and Regina King, along with international standouts Kani Kusruti and Renate Reinsve, do not make the first-round list.
1. (tie) Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
1. (tie) Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
3. Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”
4. Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown”
5. Daniel Craig — “Queer”
6. Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II”
7. (tie) Glen Powell — “Hit Man”
7. (tie) Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man”
7. (tie) Tom Hanks — “Here”
Surprisingly, Ralph Fiennes, despite his incredible body of work, has never won an Oscar. In Round 1 of the panel’s voting, however, Fiennes is tied for first place with Adrien Brody, who won for “The Pianist” over two decades ago. Other notable contenders in the top five are Colman Domingo, Timothée Chalamet, and Daniel Craig.
Not making the first-round list are several notable contenders, including Ethan Herisse in “Nickel Boys,” John Magaro in “September 5,” and Nicholas Hoult, who has had quite a standout year with his performances in “The Order” and “Nosferatu.”
1. Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson”
2. Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys”Similar posts:
My name is Alex Carter, a journalist with a deep passion for independent cinema, alternative music, and contemporary art. A University of California, Berkeley journalism graduate, I’ve honed my expertise through film reviews, artist profiles, and features on emerging cultural trends. My goal is to uncover unique stories, shine a light on underrepresented talents, and explore the impact of art on our society. Follow me on SuperBoxOffice.com for insightful analysis and captivating discoveries from the entertainment world.