Gladiator and Wicked Defy Gravity for Epic Box Office Weekend – You Won’t Believe It!

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” and Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” are anticipated to deliver outstanding performances at the national box office this weekend.

Following a robust summer (“Inside Out 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine”) and a somewhat lackluster autumn (“Megalopolis,” “Joker: Folie à Deux”), the enchantresses of Oz and the valorous warriors from ancient Rome are uniting to usher in the festive movie season.

Boosted by celebrity appeal, vigorous promotion, and cherished intellectual property, “Gladiator II” is estimated to open between $65 million and $75 million, while “Wicked” is predicted to generate $120 million to $140 million in the U.S. and Canada, based on projections from Boxoffice Pro.

Projections from the studios are more conservative, pegging “Gladiator II” around $60 million and “Wicked” around $100 million.

“‘Wicked’ is the one truly on the rise. ‘Gladiator II’ has remained steady,” stated Daniel Loria, editorial director and senior vice president of content strategy at Boxoffice Pro.

“Much of this is fueled by a thriving fan culture. This musical has been around for quite some time. People are familiar with it. While musicals haven’t always performed well at the box office, ‘Wicked’ is the blockbuster musical of this generation.”

Cinemas have been yearning for a four-quadrant, double-feature movie event since last year’s simultaneous release of Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer,” which sparked the global “Barbenheimer” sensation. Film theaters and entertainment firms have increasingly relied on movies that become viral, must-see cultural phenomena, a trend that gained momentum following the disruption of audience habits and studio tactics by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Wicked” and “Gladiator II” will be featured in thousands of theaters across the country, with Disney’s eagerly awaited “Moana 2” appearing on the near horizon, signaling a much-needed era of robust cinema attendance. Following numerous critical and commercial failures, there is a surge in optimism among exhibitors betting on a strong end to 2024 and a promising start to 2025.

A triple success for “Gladiator II,” “Wicked,” and “Moana 2” would be a massive boost for the industry “emerging from the most dismal October of the post-pandemic era,” said Loria. The national box office so far this year is down 11% compared to the same period in 2023 and remains substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to Comscore.

“I’m not certain that this Venn diagram will be as large as the one we had for ‘Barbenheimer,'” Loria added. “But it’s another example of this industry reacting to consumer demands and responding to the need for diversity in multiplexes.”

Directed by Jon M. Chu, “Wicked” narrates the backstory of Glinda, the Good Witch of the North, and Elphaba, the Wicked Witch of the West, before Dorothy’s arrival in Munchkinland and her journey down the yellow brick road. This long-awaited reinterpretation of “The Wizard of Oz,” based on the popular Broadway musical of the same name, features pop sensation Ariana Grande as Glinda and Tony Award winner Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba.

Universal has pulled out all the stops in promoting the production, which cost an estimated $150 million to produce, excluding marketing costs. The 2-hour, 40-minute film only covers the first act of the stage musical. The sequel is set to hit theaters next year.

Unlike the promotional strategies for other films in the genre — such as Paramount Pictures’ “Mean Girls” and Warner Bros.’ “Wonka” — the “Wicked” campaign has not downplayed its musical elements. Instead, Grande and Erivo’s renditions of fan-favorite songs, from “Popular” to “Defying Gravity,” have been highlighted in trailers and TV spots promoting the movie.

“You couldn’t conceal it even if you wanted to,” noted a studio source who was not authorized to speak.

However, the “Wicked” promotional machine extends far beyond the music.

Universal collaborated with 400 brands globally — including Starbucks, Ulta Beauty, Bloomingdale’s, and Lexus — to flood retail shelves with pink and green, the signature colors of the movie’s leading witches. There are “Wicked”-themed shoes, clothes, phone cases, laptop sleeves, luggage, candles, makeup palettes, jewelry, cups, office supplies, backpacks, and hairdryers.

One of the brand collaborations attracted unwanted attention. Mattel’s line of Glinda and Elphaba dolls recently made headlines when customers noticed that the packaging included the web address for a porn site instead of the movie’s official webpage. The toy company swiftly apologized for the error, labeling the misprint an “unfortunate mistake.”

Despite these unfortunate mistakes, Universal has certainly made a monumental effort to match its source material’s popularity with its pervasive rollout.

“When you have a marketing campaign that can reach your exercise bike, extend to your supermarket, and truly leave the theater to permeate the culture — that’s when you know the studio has really gone the extra mile,” Loria commented. “I’m not sure I can name a movie since ‘Barbie’ that has achieved that.”

The marketing team behind “Gladiator II” — director Ridley Scott’s sequel to his early 2000s best picture winner, featuring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, and Denzel Washington — has also pulled a few surprises.

For instance, a Colosseum-shaped popcorn bucket with a virtual-reality twist and a controversial partnership with Airbnb to bring Medieval Times-style entertainment to the actual Colosseum in Rome.

“Gladiator II” cost an estimated $250 million to produce, not including marketing expenditures.

Exhibitors are also joining in the fun.

Look Cinemas — a dining-in theater chain with venues in Downey, Glendale, Monrovia, and Redlands — has curated a special “Wickedator” menu featuring themed food and beverage items ranging from Arena Nachos (“Gladiator”) to Emerald City Sours (“Wicked”).

James Meredith, head of marketing and revenue at Look Cinemas, said the company has been gearing up for this weekend for months, reserving premium screening rooms for both films, hosting advance screenings as early as Wednesday, and extending its showtimes and operating hours to meet an anticipated consumer demand reminiscent of the “Barbenheimer” frenzy.

“Our guests want to come in and escape for a while and have a big event or celebration around some of these popular movies,” Meredith said. “These types of movies remind customers of how special the moviegoing experience is.”